Monday, December 21, 2009

Week 16: Lions lose and Daunte Culpepper should retire

The smallest crowd in the history of Ford Field watched the Lions play abysmal for three quarters of a game on Sunday. The Arizona Cardinals destroyed the Lions, going up 17-0 in the first half, but then decided to put the game in cruise control in the third quarter.

The Schwartz pulled the aged one to start the second half and put in third year MSU nobody, Drew Stanton.

The media is going crazy about Stanton's play in bringing the Lions back from 17-0, to a 17-17 tie and another eventual 31-24 defeat.

Here is why I am totally unimpressed.

1. The first TD, a 101 yard INT return for a TD by Louis Delmas had zero to do with anything Stanton did. In fact, Stanton was on the sideline for the entire play. I watched it. Stanton wasn't even on the field.
2. The second TD, a 68 yard run by Maurice Morris was on the next Detroit offensive play. Aside from handing "Mo" the ball, he had nothing to do with the play, he didn't even throw a block.
3. Stanton only had one legitimate drive in the whole half. And he was largely inaccurate even on that one.
He can't throw deep and he's pretty bad at throwing short. Doesn't leave much.

That being said, he should still start over Culpepper. Culpepper is gone already. He has no chance of being here next year. Let's see if maybe Stanton can get better.

The only good thing about that second half was all of those good things actually happened while he was the "QB" of record. If that's even real. Maybe he has some "mojo" or something.

Here are some other things I think:

1. I was wrong about there not being a noticeable difference between starting Morris and the IR'd Kevin Smith. Morris is a lot better than Smith--with the top end speed to finish plays. He may be a feature back for the Leo's next year.

2. Drew Stanton didn't even appear to run the ball well.

3. Jim Schwartz actually knows the rules. I think that's 100% better than Rod Marinelli, because I'm pretty sure, he didn't know the rules. Schwartz screams at the refs at the right times. That's a very encouraging sign.

4. Delmas is a player. He always seems to be around the ball and now he's actually catching it instead of playing volleyball. His 101 yd TD was something worth watching.

5. I don't trust DE Jason Hunter, you never know what kind of play you're going to get when he steps out on the field.

6. If the Lions put out two or three tackling dummies to block for the Lions, I think they might actually be better off. The tackling dummies at least wouldn't jump offsides or be called for holding.

7. The Lions have so many needs it hurts my brain. I am all for the Lions spending any and all draft picks on defense this year...but I could also understand it if they wanted to rebuild an offensive line...or get a complementary receiver to play opposite of Calvin and try to stop the constant triple teams...or get a real home run threat running back.

8. But I would not pass up on Ndamakong Suh, DE, Nebraska. He looks to be the next great DL. Kiper, even though you have to take everything helmet head says with a mountain of salt, has stated that Suh is the best DL prospect to come out in 30 years...not sure but I think Reggie White and Bruce Smith both fit into that time frame.

Cheerleaders?

The Lions tortured their minimal crowd for another Sunday by denying fans the usual eye candy provided by almost every other NFL team.

3rd and 3 or less

Every team tries to get to a "manageable" down and distance on third down. 3rd and 3 or less is the goal of every offense. But what should they do when they actually achieve said goal? Run it! The average NFL rush goes for 3.75-4.25 yards...why not run it?

The Lions faced 3rd and 3 or less four times on Sunday, passing it three times and rushing only once. This was a good day for the Lions in this situation. They were actually 3 of 4 overall. 2 of 3 passing and 1 for 1 rushing.

For the the season, the Lions are 13 of 19 rushing and 11 of 24 passing. Or 68% success rushing verses only 46% passing.

Tales of the Inept

The St Louis Rams (1-13) played very well, almost beating the Houston Texans, 16-13, but managed to keep what now appears to be a stranglehold on the #1 pick in next year's draft. The question is whether they need a new QB more than they need the next great DL.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) put a major league whooping on the Seattle Seahawks, 24-7 and leap frogged our own Leo's in the draft rankings. Detroit now sits at #2 if the season ended today. The Bucs are now third.

The Cleveland Browns (3-11) are in serious danger of dropping out the annals of the inept. They've won for a second week in a row behind 2 kickoff return TD's by Josh Cribbs and an amazing 286 yard rushing day by Jerome Harrison. The Brown's beat up Kansas City in a 41-34 shootout.

Next week we can discuss how the Lions have NEVER won in San Francisco.

If you missed the game

because it was blacked out here in Detroit

Check it out here.

This game will be available until Wednesday.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

My long discussion with Sean Baligian about trading Calvin Johnson

This morning, on my way into work, I was listening to WDFN hosted by Sean Baligian and Tom "the Killer" Kowalski. They brought up an article by Drew Sharp in which Sharp entertains the idea of trading Calvin Johnson for draft picks and rebuilding the defense.


Kowalski thought the idea ludicrous.


To give credit where credit is due, it was not the first time I had heard the idea. Mike Valenti and Terry Foster of WXYT brought up this possibility a few weeks ago. And yesterday Valenti brought up the truly ludicrous idea of packaging Detroit's #1 pick and CJ to move up and get Ndamkong Suh. Whereas I'll learn to do cartwheels if they get Suh, that trade would be horrendous.


But I am not against the idea of trading Calvin Johnson for picks. In my mind, the most logical trading partner would be the Baltimore Ravens and I think adequate compensation would be the Ravens first and third round picks this year, plus a first or second round pick next year.


Why even entertain the idea of trading Johnson? Because the Lions offense is abysmal even with Johnson. It'll be just as abysmal without him. The Lions have too many needs and the idea of being able to add half a defense (with the Lions current picks along with the new picks) at the expense of one great player is very appealing.


Bill Parcells has shown, on numerous occasions, that the fastest road back to respectability in the NFL is to build a solid defense.


So I called in. I'll see if I can't find that audio too.


And following that discussion, I had the following email chain with Sean, who hosts "Fantasy Sports Geekly" on WDFN, which is why his emails come from "geekly".


Many thanks to Sean for giving me permission to publish this. There are typos. Sorry.




Me to Geekly 8:12 am

Trading Calvin Johnson is the kind of deal that could build a real franchise. Adding a 1st and a 3rd this year allows for the Lions to take FIVE defensive players. Building a defense can allow this team to have a chance to be in games. This team is never going to be a 50+ points per week. The Lions don't have adequate guards, tackles, running backs or a second WR. Keeping CJ is typical "Lions Logic" ie keep the flash, forget the trenches. You win with defense. Five picks in the top 100? 3 DL, 2 CB's? How about keeping opponents in the 20's and maybe the Lions could be in games in the fourth quarter.

You don't think that Baltimore would jump at the chance to pair up Johnson and Flacco? And by the way, what kind of deal did the Ravens give up to get Flacco?

Thanks,

Derrick
strugglingsportsreporter.blogspot.com


Geekly to Me 8:21am


Derrick, You are working under the assumption that they GET a deal like that, they don't just fall into your lap like the Jerry Jones deal, NOBODY wants to be the next Mike Lynn or Jerry Jones, they are chastised up and down for making those deals! I agree, 100% on building the trenches, I have preached that for years, but, having the #4 pick in the draft is huge, and it can be a slow, arduous process if they make the RIGHT choices..based on last years draft..

Me to Geekly 8:25 am


A 1st and a 3rd this year, another 1st next year. To a team like Baltimore desperate for a big play WR, a team that's been looking for a WR for years. I'm not saying trade him for two picks...I'm saying if you get 3+ picks. And I'm certainly saying you shop it and see if you can get it.


Geekly to me 8:26 am


IF you get something like that, I will listen to be sure…again, I think that that is a giant assumption...I just don't think that deal occurs based on the hammering that Lynn, Jones et al received


Me to Geekly 8:46 am


2008-Baltimore traded its first-round selection to Jacksonville for Jacksonville's first-round selection, two third-round selections, and fourth-round selection (No. 26, 71, 89, 125). All for Joe Flacco. Baltimore seems to trade every year. Last year they traded up for

2009-Micheal Oher. New England traded its first-round selection (23rd overall, used to select Michael Oher) to Baltimore for first- and fifth-round selections (26th overall, traded to Green Bay, who selected Clay Matthews; and 162nd overall, traded to Green Bay, who selected Jamon Meredith


Geekly to me 8:48 am


Derrick, look at the draft choices you are talking about 26th overall, not 4th overall where you can still grab a McCoy and retain CJ..the chances of getting impactful players at 71,89, 125 and 162 gp down greatly, especially with this franchise..in fairness, Mayhew had a nice draft from last year.


Me to Geekly 8:52 am


Flacco was an 18, which is where Baltimore currently stands. Now, you're looking at 4-5 picks. Mayhew has kept 6 of his 7 picks this year and all have contributed. Can he do it again? Who know, but I'd like to give him a chance.

Levy is a starter. Sammie Hill is a starter. The Lions don't have starters! 4 or 5 starters? 1 WR.

It would be the draft heard round the world if the Leo's go offense with the first two picks.


Geekly to me 8:56 am


I would like to give him the chance, with a #4, and CJ and the rest of the picks…you are gambling with later picks, simply put


Me to Geekly 8:58 am


The Saints are doing what they're doing, because they brought in Gregg Williams who has given them a decent defense. They had the same offense last year.


Geekly to me 8:59 am


You can't at #4, NO WAY, I will puke, grab McCoy there!


Me to Geekly 9:00 am


Unless both Suh and McCoy are gone, there is no way they draft Okung like Killer is saying.


Geekly to me 8:59


That is a massive assumption, that they can turn 71`, 89, 125 and 162 into starters, massive. You paid the man the bulk of his contract AND can franchise him, this is two years away, and CAN be done through the draft with retaining a good young WR, it is not a quick fix scheme, it a simply is not


Geekly to me 9:04 am


Their offense was not an issue last year at all, it was their defense. I don't agree with Killer on the D issue, that must be addressed


Me to Geekly 9:11 am


A good NFL draft finds 3-4 "contributing" players. This last draft was exceptional. I'm not saying he can do it again, but give him a chance.

Baltimore has been begging for a #1 WR for 3-4 years. The NY Jets don't have a #1 and they just bought their franchise QB. Just put him on the market and see what is out there.

Sorry, don't have a #1 WR.

Me to Geekly 9:14 am

If you keep CJ, then you have another year where the defense can't be logically addressed. If you don't go offense with a T, a guard or two, a RB, CJ will be wasted for another year.

I am cheering Mayhew's draft, not criticizing.

It's even funnier what happened to New Orleans when they got a good defensive coordinator.

Geekly to me 9:14 am

I agree, give him a chance again with the #4 pick and a #1 WR already established..and the picks in place unless we get a Jerry Jones deal.

Geekly to me 9:17 am

CJ is not a #1?!

Geekly to me 9:19 am

Why can't it be based on having the #4 pick and the draft choices we already have? Especially since you yourself keep citing the success of last year?

Me to Geekly 9:27 am

It is a several year project to recreate the Lions, but it can be quicker. That's all I'm saying. I'm meant that the Jets also don't have a #1 WR, the Jets might be interested too.

My point earlier was, if you're keeping CJ, your most likely keeping your focus on the offense. If you want the most out of Johnson, then you need a new RB, a new T, some guards. And I think you do that at the expense of the defense.

I'm a fan, we're all fans, we've all been waiting for decades. Is it a chance at a quick fix? No, not really. It's a chance to be a quicker fix.

Geekly to me 9:35 am

I understand that, I really do…but, you can keep CJ and use Mayhew’s normal draft choices and reach that goal if we base it on his picks from just last year, if he has that success over the next TWO drafts then we are a better team, and have a real WR

Me to Geekly 9:37

I'm not saying what that this is going to happen, but Drafttek.com does a pretty good job. And it gives you an idea. This is assuming a 1st and 3rd pick this year for Johnson.

1

4

Detroit

*Gerald McCoy

DT43

Oklahoma

1

20

Detroit

Greg Hardy

DE43

Mississippi

2

36

Detroit

*Joe Haden

CB

Florida

3

68

Detroit

*Cameron Heyward

DE43

Ohio State

3

83

Detroit

*Gabe Carimi

OT

Wisconsin

4

99

Detroit

*Rennie Curran

SS

Georgia

5

131

Detroit

*Rodney Hudson

OG

Florida State

6

163

Detroit

Geno Atkins

DT43

Georgia

7

194

Detroit

*Chykie Brown

CB

Texas



Haden won't be there in the second, but maybe a Patrick Robinson?


Geekly to me 9:38 am


"Assuming"


Me to Geekly 9:39 am


Thanks for the spirited discussion. I have to start doing some actual work this morning.

Thanks.


Geekly to me 9:43 am


Thank you..and if they get a great deal, a Jerry Jones deal, I'll listen.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Week 15: Sorry, my bad.

First of all, I'd like to clarify that I slept through most of this game. According to the score, so did most of the Lions.

I also want to take full responsibility for this horrible excuse of a game, team, etc. I am a very superstitious guy. Maybe I'm not "never change your socks during a winning streak" obsessive, but I do believe wholeheartedly in "the jinx." When a kicker lines up for the 45 yard FG and the announcer says "so-and-so has been automatic all year for his team. He hasn't missed yet this year." Inevitably, that kicker will miss. Or at least have a much higher percentage chance of missing. I don't have any stats to back me up on this, just 30 years of watching all level of football to fall back on.

"So-and-so has gone 130+ pass attempts without throwing a pick. That's why this team has won three in a row." Is directly to blame for "So-and-so" will throw 3 picks today.

Again, no statistical evidence...just know it. This really boils down to the same thing as the "Madden Curse" and "sophomore slumps" and the "SI cover jinx." It is more of a mounting of pressure, whether conscious or sub-conscious, which effects the player.

So why do I bring this up?

Because I jinxed the Lions Sunday morning. And, apparently I did a great job of it.

At 2 a.m, Sunday morning, 3 pitchers in, my out of town friend started to talk about how the Lions had pretty much killed all of his interest in the NFL and that he was teaching his children to be Giants fans, if they were going to be any kind of fan, since they now lived in NY/NJ.

Normally, I would applaud his effort to save his children from years of unnecessary pain and suffering which the Lions are prone to induce, but on this night, as I tried to eat something called a "hooburito," I thought I'd defend the hometown team for the billionth time.

"The Lions will be good again, and it'll be sooner than you think."

That's what I said. After watching all the highlights, reading the gamebook and several articles about the game, I'm more than a little embarrassed. First, that I said it at all. Second, that I jinxed the Leos. And apparently it was a doozy of a jinx.

My logic was sound, albeit misguided. The premise of my argument was "How is a team supposed to be built?" And invariably the answer is always the same, through the draft.

And how did the Lions draft this year, in Martin Mayhew/Jim Schwartz's first year? It looked pretty good. 6 of 7 picks are still with the team. The seventh was stolen by Bill Parcells. All 6 have played, 5 have had major roles. That is unheard of.

Until you realize that those players didn't beat out proven vets to play. They played because the Lions don't have anybody else. It's very misleading. This team is so far away from just being mediocre, it's sad.

1. Kevin Smith is admirable and now he's gone too. He plays with heart, but he can't break tackles and he doesn't have the top end speed to finish. Maurice Morris will step in now that Smith is most likely going to the IR and I don't believe there will be much of a drop off. Hopefully, Aaron Brown will get more opportunities and he can convince himself he might be good enough to be an every down player.

2. Daunte Culpepper thinks he should be a starter in the NFL. Good luck. It'll never happen. No team is bad enough to let you start full-time, not even the Lions.

3. The Detroit Lions took Jordan Dizon instead of Ray Rice. Just one more thing that I think says a lot about Matt Millen. 13 rushes, 166 yards. 12+ yards per carry. The Lions can't defend the run or the pass.

4. Joe Flacco had a 120 QB rating. Good to see things getting back to normal.

5. Louis Delmas also went down with an ankle injury, whereas Smith is almost assuredly going to IR. The Lions will take a few days to evaluate their best player on defense.

6. Most people are trying hard not to say the Lions "quit" in this game, but they did. Jim Schwartz insinuated that he'll be looking hard at the game tape and probably cutting players who quit. He needs to make sure those are not empty words. I think the Lions could gut the whole middle of this team and replace them with practice squad players from around the league. Play kids, see if you can find any diamonds in the rough. Because it can't get any rougher than what Baltimore, a team on the outside of the bubble for the playoffs, did to the Lions.

7. Cleveland beat Pittsburgh on Thursday primarily using a RB that they pulled off the streets named Chris Jennings. The guy ran fast, with power, anger and a chip on his shoulder. It was fun to watch. The Lions need to be looking too.

8. But it is very unlikely they're going to find a whole lot of OL and 300+ lb DT's. Those guys just don't grow on trees. Jimmy Johnson, on the Fox post game show, stated that you have to get your DL in the first round. He knew a thing or two about building teams.

Cheerleaders?

Just a little something to help my readers as we continue to suffer under the tyranny of the Ford's and their incomprehensible aversion to professional dance teams.

Currently only six of the NFL's 32 franchises have chosen to go without the all important cheer brigades--Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, and the New York Giants.

3rd and 3 or less

Just like every other aspect of "football" the Lions were so incredibly inept at on Sunday, they were also pretty bad on 3rd and 3 or less. This week they followed the rule of 3rd and 3 or less, which states that "it is better to have rushed and failed than never to have rushed at all." Or something like that. On Sunday the Lions were 2 of 5 rushing in the situation and 0 of 1 passing. For the season, the numbers still bear out. 12 of 18 rushing and 9 of 21 passing.

Tales of the Inept

The Cleveland Brown (2-11) managed to beat the defending SuperBowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, 13-6, behind a spirited effort by Chris Jennings and Brady Quin. They still, due to strength of schedule have a higher pick than the Leos.

The St. Louis Rams (1-12), a team that beat the Lions, is currently lined up for the #1 pick. They lost in Lion-esque fashion to the once 0-6 Tennessee Titans, 47-7.

The Tampa Bay Buccanneers (1-12) lost to the New York Jets, 26-3, who sat the Sanchize, Mark Sanchez.

PS Stay away from anything called a "Hooburito," it's not good for your judgment or your lower intestines.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Week 14: Where I figure out how I gained a week on the NFL

And the Lions lose again.

The problem with the Lions loss this week was that it was so pedestrian. The team seemed resigned to lose, played lethargically all day, and then finally lost. The 23-13 score was not in the least bit a reflection of the game itself. Cincinnati could have scored a lot more points, the woeful Lions secondary couldn't contain Chad Ochocinco at any point of the day. The Bengals simply quit throwing to him out of the mercy of their own hearts.

The other thing I learned is that, even in Hi-Def, the Lions will still put me to sleep on any given Sunday.

1. Matt Stafford, Franchise Savior, needs to be allowed to heal. Jim Schwartz says that the doctors claim Stafford cannot further injure his bum non-throwing shoulder. Maybe that's true, but it's certainly not getting any better while he plays and it does seem to be effecting his play. Let the kid rest, at 2-10, the Leo's aren't exactly in the playoff hunt.

2. Now granted, I've said all year that any snaps taken by anyone other than Stafford this season are a complete waste of time, but it couldn't hurt to see if Drew Stanton can be an able backup next season. It also couldn't hurt the organization to show some compassion to Daunte Culpepper and let him showcase himself off to the league for a game or two. Daunte worked like a fiend in the offseason, losing 30 lbs and rededicating himself to football. It would send a positive message to the team that such hard work will be rewarded.

3. Kevin Smith could be a great running back -- if the field were only ten yards long. He made lots of great cuts at the line to get a couple yards...but he just can't break anything longer than that.

4. After I called for Aaron Brown to get some time at #1 RB, Brown comes out on the radio and states that he doesn't think he's capable of being an every down back. To me, that's a huge red flag. Great players want to be on the field at all times. Great players think they need the rock at all times. Aaron Brown just waived off the ball and said, "No thanks, I'm good."

5. Ndamukong Suh, the great DT from Nebraska, who had 4.5 sacks (in one game) against #2 Texas, made himself a lot of money Saturday night. He also saved himself from ever having to play for Detroit. Suh will go #1 to whoever has that pick and it doesn't look very likely it'll be the Lions.

6. 17 of 29 for 220 yards, 1 TD and 2 picks for a QB rating of 65.3...Matt Stafford's numbers on Sunday? No, Franchise Savior's numbers were worse than that. Nope, those were Carson Palmer's numbers. Which is pretty amazing considering that the Lions give up a 110+ rating to every opposing QB they play. But don't read too much into it, the game was never close and the Bengals didn't really need to throw.

7. 11 of 26 for 143 yards, 1 TD and 2 picks for a QB rating of 41.0. And the Lions are sure that Stafford's non-throwing shoulder separation isn't effecting his game?


Why don't the Lions have Cheerleaders?

The Cincinnati Ben-Gals performed a very festive halftime show on Sunday. It should have put everyone who watched in the Holiday season.

Tis the season to be jolly...

3rd and 3 or less

The Lions faced 3rd and 3 or less twice on Sunday--failing miserably both times. Both failures came on pass attempts, one pass fell harmlessly incomplete and on the other attempt, Stafford was drilled into the ground again..."not" further injuring his separated shoulder.

On the season the Lions are 10 of 13 rushing, 9 of 21 passing. The numbers don't lie...on 3rd and 3 or less, it's always better to rush.

Tales of the inept
The competition for the #1 pick in next year's draft stayed pretty status quo this week.

The Cleveland Browns (1-11) lost 30-23 to the San Diego Chargers. Yes, the Browns need a QB to lead their team, but there isn't a QB in next year's draft worthy of the #1 pick and certainly nobody is more worthy than Suh.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11) lost 16-6 to Carolina. Josh Freeman looks like a find at QB for the rebuilding franchise. It is very likely that if the Bucs can't get Suh, they'll take Gerald McCoy, the other DT the Lions could use.

The St. Louis Rams (1-11) lost 17-9 to the Chicago Bears. The Rams could use a new QB too and they might be the only team that would actually take one early. The Rams took a franchise LT last season, so it is unlikely they'll take another in Steve Spagnolo's second campaign.

Friday, December 4, 2009

Because we're into December...

It's that lovely time of year, where all any Lions fans have to talk about is the draft. The wonderful folks over at Drafttek.com allow anyone, for free, to run their beliefs of what their favorite team needs are and ranks them against their "big board" of 450 players and what other fans around the country believe that their teams needs are.

Thus a fully automated simulated draft.

According to my input, here is what the Lions "should" do come next April.

1 4 Detroit *Gerald McCoy DT43 Oklahoma P1 -3 Reach
2 36 Detroit Patrick Robinson CB Florida State P2 2 Value
3 68 Detroit Tyson Alualu DE43 California P2 5 Value
4 99 Detroit D'Anthony Smith DT43 Louisiana Tech P3O 9 Value
5 131 Detroit T.J. Ward FS Oregon P2 -5 Reach
6 163 Detroit Nathan Overbay OT Eastern Washington P2 -7 Reach
7 195 Detroit Brandon Carter OG Texas Tech P2 -24 Reach

If the draft were held today...

1 Cleveland
1-10 0.534
2 St. Louis
1-10 0.545
3 Tampa Bay
1-10 0.557
4 Detroit
2-9 0.534
5 Washington
3-8 0.5
6 Oakland
3-8 0.517
7 Kansas City
3-8 0.517
8 Seattle
4-7 0.483
9 Buffalo
4-7 0.494
10 Denver (from Chicago)
4-7 0.506
 

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