Friday, April 29, 2011

Nick Fairley? Sorry, I'm not on board.

First of all, any writer that makes a stupid fairly/Fairley pun should be shot in the face.  Secondly, I am glad the Lions didn't make a huge mistake and take Da'Quan Bowers.  He was available and the Lions could have tricked over themselves and taken him.  So that was a plus.

At pick #13 the Lions were staring CB Prince Amukamara right in the face.  OT Anthony Castanzo was staring them right in the face. OT and CB were the Lions two biggest needs.

Now, here is where I'm going to give Martin Mayhew some props, but it hurts to do.  I'm thinking that what happened last night is that the Lions had absolutely no clue that Nick Fairley might be available.  They probably had Patrick Peterson, Marcell Dareus, Von Miller, and Nick Fairley--in that order--at the top of their board.  So they stayed true to their scouting and followed their draft board.  This is a solid strategy.  A strategy that successful teams follow.  It's nice to think that the Lions are doing what the good teams in the NFL do.  It's weird and unsettling and makes me feel kind of funny.

Picking Fairley does not improve the entire squad as much as a pick of Amukamara would have, but it very likely gives the Lions a defensive front that can be argued to be amongst the best in the entire NFL.

Now this does help the back seven of the defense.  If you only have to cover for a second or two, you have a lot better chance of covering, even if you can't cover.  But early last season, we learned that you can game plan for a great defensive front by screening and using short drops. Nothing has changed there.

I'll hold my tongue until I see what they do for the rest of the weekend.  They are still in GREAT need of drafting at least one CB and two OLBs, plus they have need for a third wide receiver, offensive linemen and a second running back.

Players I'll be happy if the Lions find a way to get.

CB Aaron Williams, Texas
CB Ras I Dowling, Virginia
CB Brandon Harris, Miami
CB Shareece Wright, USC

DE/OLB Jabaal Sheard, Pittsburgh

LB Bruce Carter, North Carolina
LB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
LB Quan Sturdivant, North Carolian
LB Dontae Moch, Nevada
LB Mason Foster, Washington

WR Greg Little, North Carolina
WR Randall Cobb, Kentucky
WR Titus Young, Boise State
WR Edmund Gates, Abilene Christian

RB Mikel Leshoure, Illinois

OT Ben Ijalana, Villanova

Thursday, April 28, 2011

The Lions Super Bowl is here again!

It's NFL Draft day again.

The NFL Lockout has been lifted--as if anybody knows what that really means.

Free agency can begin today, but probably won't.  A ton of trades could happen today, but probably won't. 

The NFL has appealed the decision which lifted the lockout and it would be bad form to start working like it's business as usual while they're asking the courts to reinstate the lock out.  So don't expect any teams to run out and sign players or make trades involving players.

But do look for the Lions to make a trade up if they can get their hands on Amukamara or Petersen...which they probably won't be able to.  Don't look for them to take Jimmy Smith...the Ford's avoid potential problem players like Superman avoids kryptonite.

In that same vein, don't be surprised to see them trade up and then take a player they shouldn't--like Da'Quan Bowers.  Bowers might get into the league and blow up, but if he does he would be defying all the odds.

Look for them to take a LB in the second round tomorrow too, unless they don't take a DB tonight.

Good luck Lions...please pick somebody that is good AND fills a need.  I know Aldon Smith could be a great pass rusher...but that's upgrading a position that you are more set at than LB and DB.  Upgrading the DE won't help nearly as much as filling the DB or LB vacancies would.  Just saying.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Possible Trade Partners?

So this is the current draft order leading up to the Leos pick this Thursday.

1. Carolina
2. Denver
3. Buffalo
4. Cincinnati
5. Arizona
6. Cleveland
7. San Francisco
8. Tennessee
9. Dallas
10. Washington
11. Houston
12. Minnesota
13. Detroit

Now the going theory is always to trade down if possible.  Why?  Because the draft is a complete crap shoot and the more bullets you have the better chance you've got of hitting on some real players. I am almost always on the "trade down" bandwagon.

At least I was until this year.  This year, the Lions have a definite defined need.  Heck, they have two no arguing about it needs--CB and OLB.  Last year was the first year in the last four that the Lions did not finish dead last in pass defense, but the two corners that played the most down the stretch, Alphonso Smith and Chris Houston, cannot necessarily be counted on for next year.  Houston is a free agent and Smith flaked out the last few games.  The Lions need at least one new corner. 

As for OLB, last year the Lions started the season with Zach Follett and Julian Petersen.  Petersen is not coming back and Follett may never play again due to a brutal spinal injury.  Now, unless they get some kind of sweet heart deal to move back (which is not going to happen) they are currently in no man's land in regards to addressing their current needs.  There simply isn't an OLB in this draft worthy of the the 13th overall pick.  There are two CB's worthy, but who'll most likely be gone.  Patrick Petersen, CB, LSU and Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska are the two gold standard corners in this draft and both will likely be gone by the time the Lions are on the clock.

Now, I've seen a lot of mocks with the Lions getting lucky enough to have Amukamara fall to them, but I've seen just as many that have Houston, Dallas, or Minnesota snagging them up--and Minnesota is famous for stealing players the Lions desperately need. 

So they cannot count on getting lucky.  They could sit and wait and hope that the Prince is there...but it's very risky and if he's not the Lions will be stuck with taking an OT (which might be a pretty good consolation prize) or reaching for CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado, who has all the talent in the world but a rap sheet not unlike your average gang-banger.

There are other corners and linebackers that can be had in the second through fourth rounds, but the if you need starters, and the Lions do, you'd have to pick multiple CBs and LBs just to make sure you hit on one.  Might not be a bad idea to do that anyway, but the Lions only have six picks.

So here's what I think is going to happen.  The Lions have a history of making deals with Dallas, who is in need of offensive line help and hold the #9 pick.  Jim Schwartz has a very good relationship with the Tennessee Titans who hold the #8 pick.  I foresee Patrick Petersen getting picked up either by Arizona or San Francisco.  If 'Zona picks Petersen, most likely Frisco will pick the Prince...but if Petersen gets by the Cardinals that'll leave Prince on the board.  The Lions will need to jump ahead of Minnesota and Houston to get their hands on Amukamara, which is why I see the Lions giving the #13, a third rounder this year, and a second next year to move up from #13 to #8 and fill arguably the most pressing need on the team.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Da'Quan Bowers? A guy with a career ending injury pre-NFL Draft--That's Lions Logic for ya...

Da'Quan Bowers celebrating his expected millions.
The latest fad in NFL Mock drafting is to hand Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers to the Lions at the #13 pick.  I am not surprised at this development, nor would I be surprised if Commisioner Goodell made that announcement on  Thursday night.

Why?  Because it would be a great pick for the Leo's?  Of course not.  I think that this is simply very forward thinking on the part of the Lions.  Why not draft a player who has already endured a career ending knee injury instead of developing a player who will sustain one some time down the road?
Bowers missing a tackle.

Apparently Bowers has already undergone major knee surgery and it has been deemed very likely that he will suffer from arthritis in said bending joint for the rest of his life.  History has shown that this kind of chronic pain dramatically shortens the careers of athletes--all athletes.

Other reports state that Bowers will need to undergo more surgeries in order to be able to play at any time in the future.  One of these surgeries is known as "Microfracture" surgery, which is not exactly "experimental" but it's pretty close.  Microfracture surgery has been hit and miss for NFL players so far.  The Lions own Gosder Cherilus underwent the same procedure before last season and didn't he just play lights out last year?

Bowers coming up short again.
Now maybe, just maybe, the Lions believe that because they have a history with said procedures, they think they know how to work with them and would feel comfortable having Bowers take up one of the team tubs for the next ten years...I don't know, but it is a MAJOR red flag.

But it's not even the only red flag surrounding the former Clemson Tiger.

Bowers is the definition of a "one year wonder." This is not a term of endearment.  It simply means that in his first two years of playing college ball you were surprised to find out that he was actually on the field at all--because he didn't exactly do much to make you take notice of him.

But when the bright lights came on and he knew he became draft eligible...he lit it up.
Bowers showing how to execute a proper facemask.

Now there are a lot of reasons a guy can be considered a one year wonder...Barry Sanders was one because he played behind Thurman Thomas at Oklahoma State.  Bowers played behind...let me get back to you on that one.

Is it necessarily a bad thing that when it really counted, Bowers came shining through?  No, not necessarily, but it does make me wonder about how he'll play once he's signed his name to a multi-million dollar contract...does he go right back to being a complacent nobody?  It's very possible.
 Now, this is kind of likely, because the Lions do have a history of going out on a limb and drafting players with prior injuries.

Shaun Rogers came in with a bad knee...but he ended up playing quite a bit his first season.  And he dominated.

Bowers missing a tackle, again.  I'm noticing a trend.
But Rogers was a Millen pick...and Millen liked to put gold stars next to anybody's name that might never play again.  He loved those guys.

Hopefully Mayhew is smarter than that.  His picks of Stafford and Suh are very encouraging.  But he did pick Jahvid Best last year, "King of the Youtube Concussion."  So who knows which way he'll go.

Furthermore, probably the most important point in not taking Bowers is...DE is not a dire need right now.  Chris Houston will most likely be a free agent when the lockout ends--and he was just kind of good.  But he was the best corner back we had on our roster.

The Lions NEED a cornerback or two.  The Lions do not have a starting caliber outside linebacker on the roster at all right now.

And, oh yeah, there's a reason that Matthew Stafford has ended each of his two seasons on the IR...the offensive line hasn't been able to sufficiently protect him.  Maybe the Lions would like Bowers to eventually replace Kyle VandenBosch in two years...but, guys, you have to play this year too.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Hey guys, it's draft season again and ...blah, blah, blah.

I have never in my life been so UNenthusiastic about the draft...ok, there may have been a year or two when I was more interested in bottles and filling up my diaper...but that was college and everybody goes through that.

No, I don't know, something about the lockout and knowing that the two players that would most help solidify the Lions will be long gone by the time the team picks 13th has just drained me of all energy this year.  Usually, I would spend every free moment at work pouring over sportingnews, Great Blue North Report, mlive, cnnsi, and espn to see how all the players rank or how fast they ran a 40...how much their statistics changed from sophomore to junior years...there would be tons of arguments about who would have the most impact on the lowliest defense in the history of the NFL...but this season...nothing.  Maybe because there has been no free agency...no excitement...nothing.

So, just because I haven't posted since the end of the season...which seems so long ago...let me give you a few observations about this year's draft that could come back and haunt me for years to come.

The Lions need Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara...but they won't get either.

Every QB they're talking about going in the first or second round this year will be a bust.  Cam Newton is just not an NFL signal caller.

Nate Solder will be the best of the OT in this draft.  He's biggest, strongest, and most fundamentally sound.

Da'Quan Bowers is Andre Wadsworth with an extra apostrophe.

Von Miller could be the next Dwight Freeney.

The Lions need two outside linebackers something fierce.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach for one in two of the first three rounds.

Colorado CB Jimmy Smith is going to be a star in the league...because he'll have so many people to prove wrong.

The Lions do need an offensive tackle and a center...probably two offensive tackles.  No offensive line is perfect, especially when your quarterback is made of glass.

The Ford's will continue to do nothing about the Detroit Pride until the fervor for cheerleaders dies down and then they'll be pompous enough to say "see nobody really wanted them" because they're jerks who don't give a crap about the average fan.
 

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